人工增雨效果的數(shù)值統(tǒng)計(jì)評(píng)估方法
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P48 P456.7

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河南省重大科技攻關(guān)項(xiàng)目“人工影響天氣優(yōu)化技術(shù)研究”資助


Numerical-Statistical Method for Precipitation Enhancement Effectiveness Evaluation
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    摘要:

    利用1995~2001年河南省春季降水資料,采用數(shù)值預(yù)報(bào)與統(tǒng)計(jì)相結(jié)合的方法,對(duì)飛機(jī)人工增雨的效果進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)。該方法的基本思路是根據(jù)降水的氣候特征設(shè)定增雨效果的評(píng)估區(qū),在同一評(píng)估區(qū)內(nèi)應(yīng)用數(shù)值模式MM5V3對(duì)歷史降水過(guò)程的降水量進(jìn)行數(shù)值預(yù)報(bào),從而獲得一組預(yù)報(bào)雨量,對(duì)非增雨過(guò)程的數(shù)值預(yù)報(bào)雨量與降水實(shí)況進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)分析,建立預(yù)報(bào)雨量與實(shí)況雨量的數(shù)理統(tǒng)計(jì)關(guān)系。對(duì)增雨作業(yè)過(guò)程的降水同樣采用相同的數(shù)值模式進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),并與增雨后的實(shí)況雨量比較,從而得到飛機(jī)人工增雨效果。評(píng)估結(jié)果表明:1995~2001年春季飛機(jī)人工增雨效果比較明顯,豫北區(qū)(Ⅰ區(qū))平均為16.7%,豫東區(qū)(Ⅱ區(qū))平均為19.3%。

    Abstract:

    Based on the data of precipitation in spring from 1995 to 2001 in Henan, a new method was developed combining numerical prediction and statistical analysis techniques to evaluate the effectiveness of precipitation enhancement by airplane seeding. The basic idea is that the numerical forecasts for historical raining processes were formulated and a series of precipitation forecasts were obtained in terms of the MM5 V3 numerical model in the same evaluation area, which was partitioned based on the climatic rainfall characteristics. The statistical equations between precipitation forecasts for non-seeding precipitation processes and observed precipitation were established. The rainfall of the seeded precipitation processes was predicted with the above model and compared with the observation. The effectiveness of precipitation enhancement was finally gained. The results show that the average effectiveness of precipitation enhancement in spring from 1995 to 2001 is 16.7% in the northern Henan and 19.3% in the eastern Henan, respectively.

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胡鵬 谷湘潛 冶林茂 董官臣.人工增雨效果的數(shù)值統(tǒng)計(jì)評(píng)估方法[J].氣象科技,2005,33(2):189~192

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