西安市冬季采暖氣象條件分析和預(yù)報(bào)方法初探
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P426.616 TU832

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Analysis of Meteorological Conditions and Forecasting Methods for Heating in Winter in Xi''''an
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    摘要:

    對(duì)西安市冬季采暖氣象條件和預(yù)報(bào)方法進(jìn)行了研究。根據(jù)國家采暖規(guī)范結(jié)合西安冬季采暖的實(shí)際,首先對(duì)西安1951年7月到2003年6月歷年的逐日氣象資料進(jìn)行了詳盡的分析,比較了國家采暖日期相關(guān)規(guī)范和規(guī)定中的3種不同的統(tǒng)計(jì)方法,確定了符合西安特點(diǎn)的采暖初終日。充分利用T213數(shù)值預(yù)報(bào)產(chǎn)品,對(duì)2002年和2003年兩個(gè)冬半年的逐日850hPa和500hPa各時(shí)次各類氣象要素及與之對(duì)應(yīng)的西安各時(shí)次實(shí)況的氣溫作了相關(guān)分析,建立了回歸方程,提出了采暖期及其逐日氣溫預(yù)報(bào)。

    Abstract:

    In order to economize energy resources and reduce pollution and to build a resources-economized society,the meteorological conditions and forecasting methods for heating in winter in Xi'an were studied.According to the National Heating Regulations in China and the heating situation in winter in Xi'an,an analysis was made of the day-to-day meteorological data during the heating period in winter from July 1951 to June 2003 in Xi'an.The first day and last day of heating in winter are confirmed by comparing three different statistical methods recommended in the related national regulations.By making good use of T213 numerical forecasting products,the correlative analyses were conducted between the various day-to-day meteorological factors at different times at 850 hPa and 500 hPa and the corresponding actual temperature during heating periods in winter in Xi'an.A regression analysis method of day-to-day temperature forecasting during heating period in winter is put forward.

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龐文保 羅慧 李建科 蔡新玲.西安市冬季采暖氣象條件分析和預(yù)報(bào)方法初探[J].氣象科技,2005,33(6):505~508512

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  • 收稿日期:2005-01-10
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