天津電力負(fù)荷特性及其與氣象因子的關(guān)系
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華北區(qū)域氣候變化評(píng)估報(bào)告編制項(xiàng)目(CCSF2010 1)資助


Characteristics of Electrical Load and Its Relationship toMeteorological Factors in Tianjin
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    摘要:

    利用天津近30年來的逐年電力負(fù)荷數(shù)據(jù)以及2002—2005年逐時(shí)電力負(fù)荷資料,分析了天津電力負(fù)荷的變化特征,研究了電力負(fù)荷與氣象因子的關(guān)系。結(jié)果表明:近30年來,天津電力負(fù)荷的長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)基本受當(dāng)?shù)谿DP的影響,氣溫等氣象因子的作用不明顯;在季節(jié)和日尺度上,氣溫的影響十分顯著,7、8月氣溫每上升1 ℃,氣象負(fù)荷將增加120 MW左右;除氣溫的影響外,夏季、初秋相對(duì)濕度對(duì)電力負(fù)荷的影響非常顯著,此外,4月、6月、7月和12月還得考慮風(fēng)的影響;一般來說,夏季最高氣溫在30 ℃以上,平均相對(duì)濕度大于65%時(shí),才可能出現(xiàn)極端電力負(fù)荷。

    Abstract:

    Using the hourly electrical load data from 2002 to 2005 and the year to year data of electrical load in the recent 30 years in Tianjin, the characteristics of electrical load and its relationship with meteorological factors are analyzed. The results show that the long term interannual trend of electrical load in recent 30 years was dominantly influenced by the local GDP, whereas meteorological factors such as temperature showed no significant effect. At the seasonal and daily scales, the electrical load was obviously related with air temperature. Especially in July and August, if temperature increased 1 ℃, electrical load rose by about 120 MW. Besides the influence of temperature, relative humidity had remarkable effect on electrical load in summer and early autumn. Moreover, the effect of winds on electrical load should be considered in April, June, July, and December. Generally, extreme electrical load might appear when the maximum temperature was up to 30 ℃, and average humidity was more than 65% in summer.

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熊明明,李明財(cái),任雨,徐姝,楊艷娟.天津電力負(fù)荷特性及其與氣象因子的關(guān)系[J].氣象科技,2013,41(3):577~582

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  • 收稿日期:2012-02-28
  • 定稿日期:2012-11-06
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2013-06-24
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