不同參數(shù)化方案對(duì)風(fēng)預(yù)報(bào)效果影響個(gè)例研究
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公益性行業(yè)(氣象)科研專項(xiàng)“復(fù)雜地形風(fēng)能預(yù)報(bào)技術(shù)研究(GYHY201006035)”、中國(guó)氣象局公共氣象服務(wù)中心業(yè)務(wù)服務(wù)專項(xiàng)基金“風(fēng)能預(yù)報(bào)業(yè)務(wù)風(fēng)速訂正子系統(tǒng)開(kāi)發(fā)[2012]第011號(hào)”資助


Impacts of Different Parameterization Combination Schemes on Wind Forecast
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    摘要:

    中尺度氣象模式對(duì)風(fēng)場(chǎng)的預(yù)報(bào)效果與參數(shù)化方案的適應(yīng)性緊密相關(guān)。以內(nèi)蒙古高原丘陵地形、江蘇平緩的海陸交界地形2種典型下墊面試驗(yàn)風(fēng)電場(chǎng)為模擬區(qū)域,分別用WRFV32 (Weather Research and Forecast Model)模式自帶的6種物理過(guò)程參數(shù)化組合方案預(yù)報(bào)了2010年1月和7月兩個(gè)風(fēng)電場(chǎng)區(qū)域的風(fēng)速和風(fēng)向,對(duì)比分析了參數(shù)化組合方案差異對(duì)風(fēng)場(chǎng)預(yù)報(bào)的影響。結(jié)果表明:①內(nèi)蒙古試驗(yàn)區(qū),邊界層MRF方案描述的邊界層結(jié)構(gòu)較 MYJ 方案合理;微物理方案WSM3在夏季的風(fēng)速預(yù)報(bào)能力優(yōu)于WSM6,而冬季相反;復(fù)雜地形區(qū)域的風(fēng)場(chǎng)預(yù)報(bào)需考慮陸面過(guò)程參數(shù)化方案,尤其是夏季降水發(fā)生后,陸面過(guò)程對(duì)于邊界層結(jié)構(gòu)的影響增大,選用Noah優(yōu)于無(wú)陸面過(guò)程。②江蘇試驗(yàn)區(qū),邊界層MRF方案描述的邊界層結(jié)構(gòu)較 MYJ 方案合理;1月陸面過(guò)程RUC方案優(yōu)于陸面熱量擴(kuò)散和Noah;7月陸面熱量擴(kuò)散方案優(yōu)于RUC和Noah。③風(fēng)向預(yù)報(bào)6個(gè)方案的預(yù)報(bào)風(fēng)向統(tǒng)計(jì)與實(shí)際記錄風(fēng)向統(tǒng)計(jì)有較好的一致性,風(fēng)向概率分布相似,盛行風(fēng)向一致且穩(wěn)定。

    Abstract:

    The wind forecasting results of the mesoscale meteorological model are closely related to the adaptability of the parameterization schemes. Two pilot wind farms with typical underlying surface are selected as simulation regions, which are the undulating hilly terrain of Inner Mongolia and the flat land sea border terrain of Jiangsu respectively. Six kinds of physical process parameterizations of WRFV32 (Weather Research and Forecast Model) are adopted in forecasting the wind speed and direction of the two wind farms in January 2010 and July 2010, and the impacts of parameterizations difference on wind forecasting are analyzed. The results show that: (1) In the experimental area of Inner Mongolia,the MRF boundary Layer parameterization scheme is more reasonable than MYJ does in describing the structure of the boundary layer; the microphysical scheme WSM3 forecasts the wind speed better than WSM6 in summer and vice versa in winter; the land surface process scheme increases the influence on the boundary layer structure of complicated terrain, especially after summer rainfall, and the Noah scheme is better than that without any land surface process. (2) In the experimental area of Jiangsu, the MRF boundary Layer parameterization schemes describes the structure of the boundary layer more reasonable than MYJ; the land surface process RUC is superior to the heat diffusion and Noah schemes in January; the heat diffusion scheme is superior to the RUC and Noah in July. (3) The forecasting wind direction statistics of the six parameterization combination schemes and the actual recorded wind direction statistics are in good agreement, and the wind direction probability distribution is similar, and the prevailing wind direction is consistent and stable.

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孫逸涵,程興宏,柳艷香,宋麗莉.不同參數(shù)化方案對(duì)風(fēng)預(yù)報(bào)效果影響個(gè)例研究[J].氣象科技,2013,41(5):870~877

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  • 收稿日期:2012-07-10
  • 最后修改日期:2012-12-11
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2013-10-31
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