寧波桃樹花期預(yù)報(bào)方法
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國(guó)家重大科技支撐計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2011BAK07B02 05)、寧波市科技計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2011C50078)、浙江省氣象局科技計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2010YB05)資助


A Method for Forecasting Peach Flowering in Ningbo
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    摘要:

    以寧波奉化桃花為例,應(yīng)用區(qū)域中尺度自動(dòng)氣象站的逐時(shí)資料,分析前期光、溫、濕條件的變異系數(shù)及這些要素與花期的相關(guān)系數(shù)得出:時(shí)積溫(度〖DK〗·時(shí))相對(duì)日積溫(度〖DK〗·日)更能體現(xiàn)其與花期的內(nèi)在關(guān)系,根據(jù)變異系數(shù)和相關(guān)系數(shù)的極值來(lái)確定預(yù)報(bào)因子。在此基礎(chǔ)上利用歐洲中期天氣預(yù)報(bào)中心(ECMWF)細(xì)網(wǎng)格資料的中期預(yù)報(bào)產(chǎn)品,采用BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò),建立花期精細(xì)化預(yù)報(bào)模型,應(yīng)用于實(shí)際預(yù)報(bào)。結(jié)果表明,利用中期數(shù)值預(yù)報(bào)產(chǎn)品和適當(dāng)?shù)念A(yù)報(bào)模型進(jìn)行花期中期預(yù)報(bào)是可行的,取得了較好的預(yù)報(bào)效果,提高了氣象為農(nóng)業(yè)服務(wù)水平。

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    Based on the hourly data of the regional automatic weather stations in Ningbo, an analysis is made of the variability coefficients of sunshine duration, temperature, and humidity, as well as the relation between these meteorological elements and flowering periods. The results show that hour by hour accumulated temperatures (℃〖DK〗·h) indicate better relation compared with day by day accumulated temperature, and the predictors are obtained based on the extreme variability and correlation coefficients. The BP neural network method is applied to set up mid term flowering forecast models, and ECMWF fine grid model products are used as well. Trial forecasts perform quite well in forecasting blossom time and duration. The method can help improve meteorological service for agricultural activities.

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姚日升,涂小萍,丁燁毅,黃鶴樓,胡波.寧波桃樹花期預(yù)報(bào)方法[J].氣象科技,2014,42(1):180~186

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  • 收稿日期:2012-11-06
  • 最后修改日期:2013-03-22
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2014-02-28
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