四川盆地區(qū)域性暴雨過(guò)程的識(shí)別及時(shí)空變化特征
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公益性行業(yè)(氣象)科研專(zhuān)項(xiàng)(GYHY201306022)、川氣課題(2014青年10)資助


Recognition and Spatiotemporal Variation of Regional Rainstorm Processes over Sichuan Basin
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    摘要:

    利用四川盆地104個(gè)縣級(jí)氣象站逐日降水量資料,建立了新的四川盆地區(qū)域性暴雨過(guò)程識(shí)別方法,并分析了其時(shí)空變化特征。研究結(jié)果表明:新的區(qū)域性暴雨過(guò)程識(shí)別方法可以排除孤立暴雨站點(diǎn)的影響,快速準(zhǔn)確的識(shí)別出區(qū)域性暴雨過(guò)程。1961—2013年四川盆地共計(jì)發(fā)生區(qū)域性暴雨過(guò)程216次,與歷史災(zāi)情資料在發(fā)生時(shí)間、范圍和強(qiáng)度上都有很好的對(duì)應(yīng)關(guān)系。1961—2013年四川盆地區(qū)域性暴雨過(guò)程次數(shù)呈逐漸減少的趨勢(shì)。區(qū)域性暴雨過(guò)程綜合強(qiáng)度在1991—2013年波動(dòng)幅度有所增大,并出現(xiàn)逐漸增強(qiáng)的趨勢(shì),這可能與區(qū)域性暴雨過(guò)程持續(xù)時(shí)間變長(zhǎng)和累積雨量增加有關(guān)。使用旋轉(zhuǎn)正交函數(shù)(REOF)方法對(duì)區(qū)域性暴雨過(guò)程頻數(shù)進(jìn)行分區(qū)研究,發(fā)現(xiàn)最常見(jiàn)的是盆西北型,其次是盆東北型,盆南型出現(xiàn)頻次相對(duì)最少。3種類(lèi)型的區(qū)域性暴雨過(guò)程隨時(shí)間變化差異明顯,尤其近20年盆西北型有逐漸減少的趨勢(shì),盆東北型有逐漸增多的趨勢(shì),而盆南型則無(wú)明顯的變化趨勢(shì)。

    Abstract:

    Based on the daily precipitation data of 104 stations in the Sichuan basin, a new method for identifying Regional Rainstorm Processes (RRP) in the Sichuan basin is established, and its temporal and spatial variation characteristics are analyzed. The research results show that the new method can rule out the influence of the isolated storm site, and identify the RRP quickly and accurately. There are 216 RRPs in the Sichuan basin, which have good correspondence with historical disaster data in time, range, and intensity. The number of RRPs in the Sichuan basin from 1961 to 2013 showed a gradual decrease. The integrated strength gradually increased from 1991 to 2013, which may be related to the duration and increase of accumulated rainfall. The method of rotating orthogonal function (REOF) is used to study the frequency of RRPs in three regions (northwest, northeast, and south). It is found that the most common is the northwest, the second is the northeast, and the south is the least frequently. For the three types of RRPs, the temporal variations are obvious, especially in recent 20 years. There is a trend of gradual decrease in the northwest of the basin, and increase in the northeast, while the south has no obvious change.

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王春學(xué),馬振峰,秦寧生,張順謙,鄧彪.四川盆地區(qū)域性暴雨過(guò)程的識(shí)別及時(shí)空變化特征[J].氣象科技,2016,44(5):776~782

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  • 收稿日期:2015-08-20
  • 最后修改日期:2016-04-29
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2016-10-13
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