短時強降水監(jiān)測和預(yù)警技術(shù)及其在山區(qū)的應(yīng)用
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重慶市青年基金項目(QNJJ201710),中國氣象局預(yù)報員專項(CMAYB2018078)資助


Monitoring and Early Warning of ShortTime Strong Rainfall and Its Application to Mountain Areas
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    摘要:

    為提高短時強降水的監(jiān)測和預(yù)警技術(shù)在山區(qū)等復(fù)雜地形中的應(yīng)用,本文選取相關(guān)的探空資料分析天氣背景,劃分降水類型,與自動站訂正技術(shù)相結(jié)合,采用〖WTBX〗ZI〖WTBZ〗分型最優(yōu)化技術(shù)估測降水,利用交叉相關(guān)法對雷達反射率因子進行外推,并預(yù)測30 min后的累積降水量。根據(jù)近3年的觀測資料,制定出適合岳陽地區(qū)雷達反射率因子以及雷達估測降水對應(yīng)的降水量級。通過與自動站雨量對比,〖WTBX〗ZI〖WTBZ〗分型最優(yōu)化技術(shù)估測降水的相對誤差較小;與〖WTBX〗ZI〖WTBZ〗經(jīng)驗公式估測降水對比分析,雷達估測降水的準確率有一定提高。經(jīng)過岳陽示范區(qū)一年的實際應(yīng)用表明:該方法對短時強降水的估測和預(yù)警均取得良好的效果,對強降水引起的山體滑坡等災(zāi)害具有一定的防范作用。

    Abstract:

    In order to improve the monitoring and early warning technology of shorttime strong rainfall and its application to mountain areas, selecting the relevant radiosonde data, identifying the type of precipitation, and combined with the automatic correction technology, the classification optimization technique of 〖WTBX〗ZI〖WTBZ〗 relationship is used to estimating rainfall. Besides, the radar reflectivity factor is extrapolated by using the crosscorrelation extrapolation method, and the cumulative precipitation in 30 minutes is predicted. Based on the observation data of nearly three years, the grades of precipitation corresponding to the radar reflection and radar rainfall estimate at Yueyang are determined. Compared with the data of automatic stations, the relative error of the precipitation estimate is smaller; compared with the empirical formula of 〖WTBX〗ZI〖WTBZ〗 relationship, the accuracy of the rainfall estimate by the classification optimization technology of 〖WTBX〗ZI〖WTBZ〗 relationship shows improvement. After a year of application in Yueyang Meteorological Service, the early warning technology has a good result in the precipitation estimation and shorttime strong rainfall warning.

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周北平,杜愛軍,茍尚,杜宇飛.短時強降水監(jiān)測和預(yù)警技術(shù)及其在山區(qū)的應(yīng)用[J].氣象科技,2018,46(3):490~496

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  • 收稿日期:2017-06-02
  • 最后修改日期:2017-11-20
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2018-06-28
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