氣象干旱綜合監(jiān)測(cè)指數(shù)在安徽省的適用性分析
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安徽省氣象局科技發(fā)展基金項(xiàng)目(KM201712,KM201417)、國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(41605068)資助


Comparison of Comprehensive Meteorological Drought Index with Other Drought Indices and Its Applicability in Anhui Province
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    摘要:

    利用1981—2016年安徽省77站日降水量、平均氣溫和土壤墑情資料,通過(guò)相關(guān)分析和主成分分析方法構(gòu)建了該區(qū)域旱季(10月至次年3月)、澇季(4-9月)氣象干旱綜合指數(shù)MCI_anhui,從頻率分布、干旱日數(shù)演變、不合理跳躍次數(shù)及代表站典型干旱過(guò)程等方面,對(duì)4種氣象干旱指數(shù)在安徽省的適用性展開(kāi)對(duì)比分析。結(jié)果表明:MCI_anhui在反映較重等級(jí)氣象干旱時(shí)優(yōu)于其他指數(shù),能很好地診斷出安徽歷史上典型大旱年;基于該指數(shù)的干旱日數(shù)時(shí)空演變表現(xiàn)為沿淮北夏旱和春末旱最多,江淮之間春末夏初旱情最多,沿江江南秋旱最多;36年所有干旱過(guò)程中不合理跳躍次數(shù)不足10次,就典型干旱過(guò)程中對(duì)降水反應(yīng)的敏感性而言,它在表現(xiàn)干旱緩慢發(fā)展的特征時(shí)優(yōu)于其他指數(shù),不合理波動(dòng)較少,且干旱后期緩和或解除過(guò)程中也不如其他指數(shù)過(guò)于敏感。綜合來(lái)看,MCI_anhui對(duì)干旱過(guò)程具有較好的識(shí)別與診斷能力,在安徽省適用性良好。

    Abstract:

    Based on the daily precipitation, temperature, and soil relative humidity data of 77 stations in Anhui Province from 1981 to 2016, the Gomprehensive Meteorological Drought Index (MCI_anhui) for dry season (October to March) and flood season (April to September) is constructed by using the correlation and principal component analysis methods. In respects of the frequency distribution, evolution of drought days, illogical jumping times and typical drought processes for representative stations, the applicability of four meteorological drought indices in Anhui is analyzed through contrasts. The results show that the MCI_anhui is superior to others in reflecting the meteorological drought with heavier grades, which can well diagnose typical drought years in the history of Anhui. The number of drought days calculated from this index shows that droughts in the areas along and north of the Huaihe River occurred mostly in summer and late spring, while in the areas between Huaihe and Yangtze River, droughts mainly occurred in late spring and early summer, and in the areas along and south of the Yangtze River, droughts mainly occurred in autumn. The illogical jumping times of all drought processes in 36 years were less than 10 In terms of its sensitivity to precipitation during typical drought processes, it is represented that the MCI_anhui with less illogical jumping times is not only superior to others in reflecting slowly progressive characteristics of drought, but also less excessively sensitive during the later period of drought. In general, the MCI_anhui has a better ability to identify and diagnose drought processes and favorable applicability in Anhui Province.

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引用本文

楊瑋,謝五三,王勝,張宇.氣象干旱綜合監(jiān)測(cè)指數(shù)在安徽省的適用性分析[J].氣象科技,2018,46(5):988~998

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  • 收稿日期:2017-09-11
  • 最后修改日期:2018-03-05
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2018-10-31
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