基于機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)技術(shù)的逐時(shí)霧事故判別氣象模型
CSTR:
作者:
作者單位:

作者簡介:

通訊作者:

中圖分類號(hào):

基金項(xiàng)目:

國家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2020YFB1600100、2018YFC1505503)和中國氣象局公共氣象服務(wù)中心創(chuàng)新基金項(xiàng)目(K2021002)資助


An Hourly Meteorological Model for Fog Accident Discriminant Based on Machine Learning Technology
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 圖/表
  • |
  • 訪問統(tǒng)計(jì)
  • |
  • 參考文獻(xiàn)
  • |
  • 相似文獻(xiàn)
  • |
  • 引證文獻(xiàn)
  • |
  • 資源附件
  • |
  • 文章評(píng)論
    摘要:

    為進(jìn)一步提高霧天交通安全氣象保障精細(xì)化能力,以江蘇、安徽高速公路霧事故多發(fā)路段為例,利用2012—2018年事故信息與氣象資料,建立一種基于變量選擇和特征提取的逐時(shí)霧事故判別支持向量機(jī)模型。模型參照遞歸特征消除思路選擇事故發(fā)生時(shí)間、地理位置、氣象環(huán)境等重要變量,使用主成分分析提取重要變量的主要特征,并以徑向基為核函數(shù)、以網(wǎng)絡(luò)搜索確定最優(yōu)參數(shù)。結(jié)果表明:結(jié)合重要變量選擇和主成分分析的支持向量機(jī)混合模型能夠成功識(shí)別出訓(xùn)練集81.4%和測試集83.0%的事故樣本,AUC分?jǐn)?shù)均為0.946;判別效果優(yōu)于支持向量機(jī)單獨(dú)算法,以及僅基于重要變量選擇或主成分分析的支持向量機(jī)算法;3個(gè)典型實(shí)例分析也說明該模型對(duì)于階段性或持續(xù)性大霧天氣下的交通事故發(fā)生有一定判識(shí)與警示意義。

    Abstract:

    In order to further improve the ability of refined meteorological services for traffic safety in foggy weather, this study takes Jiangsu and Anhui expressway sections where frequent fog-caused accidents happen as examples, with the application of the disaster information and weather data from 2012 to 2018 to establish a support vector machine hybrid model for hourly fog accident detection based on variable selection and feature extraction. The model uses the recursive feature elimination method to select the important variables from accident time, geographic location, and meteorological environment, and then extracts the main features of the important variables by principal component analysis. The radial basis is used as the kernel function, and the optimal parameters are determined by network search. The results show that this support vector machine hybrid model can successfully identify 81.4% of the accident samples in the training set and 83.0% of the test set, and the AUC scores are both 0.946. The ability to identify fog accidents is superior to the support vector machine algorithm and the support vector machine algorithm based only on main variable selection or principal component analysis. The analysis of three typical examples also shows that the support vector machine hybrid model has certain identification and warning significance for the occurrence of traffic accidents under periodic or persistent foggy weather.

    參考文獻(xiàn)
    相似文獻(xiàn)
    引證文獻(xiàn)
引用本文

宋建洋,田華,郜婧婧,王志,李藹恂,陳運(yùn).基于機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)技術(shù)的逐時(shí)霧事故判別氣象模型[J].氣象科技,2023,51(1):149~156

復(fù)制
分享
相關(guān)視頻

文章指標(biāo)
  • 點(diǎn)擊次數(shù):
  • 下載次數(shù):
  • HTML閱讀次數(shù):
  • 引用次數(shù):
歷史
  • 收稿日期:2022-02-25
  • 最后修改日期:2022-08-22
  • 錄用日期:
  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2023-03-03
  • 出版日期:
文章二維碼
您是第位訪問者
技術(shù)支持:北京勤云科技發(fā)展有限公司
恭城| 沙雅县| 商城县| 揭阳市| 平阳县| 衡东县| 上犹县| 伊吾县| 奉新县| 高台县| 九江县| 新密市| 体育| 秀山| 从化市| 淮安市| 彭山县| 纳雍县| 自贡市| 成都市| 承德市| 尼勒克县| 衢州市| 宜宾县| 县级市| 西丰县| 太和县| 九龙县| 庄河市| 皋兰县| 灌南县| 陇西县| 灵山县| 天津市| 凯里市| 泸定县| 本溪| 上栗县| 潜山县| 葫芦岛市| 合肥市|