-2。日變化呈現(xiàn)出早晚小中午大的特征,于12:00左右達(dá)到日最大值;②與紫外線(xiàn)輻射強(qiáng)度顯著相關(guān)的因子為氣溫、能見(jiàn)度、總云量、相對(duì)濕度、太陽(yáng)高度角、臭氧(O3)濃度、二氧化氮(NO2)濃度;③紫外線(xiàn)輻射模型擬合效果較好,訓(xùn)練集和測(cè)試集的決定系數(shù)R2分別為0.93、0.80,對(duì)應(yīng)的均方根誤差RMSE為2.7 W·m-2、4.9 W·m-2。模型擬合估算等級(jí)正確的為75%,相差1級(jí)的占21%,相差2級(jí)的比例為4%。"/>
基于梯度提升樹(shù)算法的廣州市紫外輻射擬合模型構(gòu)建與相關(guān)因子分析
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廣東省氣象公共服務(wù)中心科學(xué)技術(shù)研究項(xiàng)目(2021Z05)資助


Construction of Ultraviolet Radiation Fitting Model and Analysis of Correlation Factors in Guangzhou Based on Gradient Boosting Decision Tree
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    利用2019—2021年廣州市紫外輻射數(shù)據(jù)、常規(guī)氣象觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)以及環(huán)境空氣質(zhì)量觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)廣州市紫外線(xiàn)輻射強(qiáng)度變化特征及與氣象、環(huán)境因子的相關(guān)性進(jìn)行分析,選擇與廣州市紫外輻射顯著相關(guān)的7種特征因子,采用梯度提升樹(shù)(Gradient Boosting Decision Tree,GBDT)算法建立廣州市紫外輻射擬合模型。結(jié)果表明:①?gòu)V州市紫外線(xiàn)輻射強(qiáng)度具有明顯的季節(jié)變化和日變化特征,季節(jié)變化表現(xiàn)為夏秋季高、冬春季低的特征。2020、2021年紫外輻射強(qiáng)度的最大值出現(xiàn)在7月,2019年出現(xiàn)在9月。3年紫外線(xiàn)輻射最小值都出現(xiàn)在3月,2020年最小為15.9 W·m-2。日變化呈現(xiàn)出早晚小中午大的特征,于12:00左右達(dá)到日最大值;②與紫外線(xiàn)輻射強(qiáng)度顯著相關(guān)的因子為氣溫、能見(jiàn)度、總云量、相對(duì)濕度、太陽(yáng)高度角、臭氧(O3)濃度、二氧化氮(NO2)濃度;③紫外線(xiàn)輻射模型擬合效果較好,訓(xùn)練集和測(cè)試集的決定系數(shù)R2分別為0.93、0.80,對(duì)應(yīng)的均方根誤差RMSE為2.7 W·m-2、4.9 W·m-2。模型擬合估算等級(jí)正確的為75%,相差1級(jí)的占21%,相差2級(jí)的比例為4%。

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    Based on data from ultraviolet radiation observations, traditional meteorological observations, and ambient air quality observations in Guangzhou from 2019 to 2021, we analyse the variation characteristics of ultraviolet radiant intensity in Guangzhou, and the correlations between ultraviolet radiation intensity and meteorological factors as well as ambient air quality factors. We select seven meteorological and ambient air quality factors significantly linked to the intensity of ultraviolet radiation in Guangzhou as characteristic elements for the input ultraviolet radiation intensity fitting model. We further use the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) algorithm to establish a fitting model for the city’s ultraviolet radiation intensity. The results demonstrate that: (1) The ultraviolet radiant intensity in Guangzhou has obvious seasonal and daily variation characteristics. The seasonal variation of ultraviolet radiation intensity in Guangzhou is characterized by high levels in summer and autumn, and low levels in winter and spring. In 2020 and 2021, the maximum value of ultraviolet radiation intensity in Guangzhou occurs in July, while in 2019, the maximum value of ultraviolet radiation intensity in Guangzhou appeared in September. The minimum ultraviolet radiation intensity in Guangzhou between 2019 and 2021 occurred in March, with the lowest intensity 15.9 W·m-2 in 2020. Daily variations in ultraviolet radiation intensity in Guangzhou typically show low in the morning and evening levels and a high at noon level, with ultraviolet radiation intensity reaching its daily maximum around 12 o’clock. (2) The meteorological and ambient air quality factors significantly correlated with the intensity of ultraviolet radiation in Guangzhou are air temperature, visibility, total cloud cover, relative humidity, solar altitude angle, ozone concentration, and nitrogen dioxide concentration. (3) The ultraviolet radiation intensity model in Guangzhou has a good fitting effect. The coefficient of determination for the training data set and the test data set of the ultraviolet radiation intensity fitting model in Guangzhou are 0.93 and 0.80, respectively. Moreover, the RMSE of the training and testing set data for the ultraviolet radiation intensity model in Guangzhou is 2.7 and 4.9 W·m-2 respectively. The estimate accuracy of ultraviolet radiation intensity levels in Guangzhou is 75%, one level difference in ultraviolet radiant levels accounts for 21%, and two level difference in ultraviolet radiant levels accounts for 4%.

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李文慧,楊穎璨,沈海波.基于梯度提升樹(shù)算法的廣州市紫外輻射擬合模型構(gòu)建與相關(guān)因子分析[J].氣象科技,2024,52(1):124~131

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  • 收稿日期:2022-10-08
  • 最后修改日期:2023-08-21
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  • 在線(xiàn)發(fā)布日期: 2024-02-29
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