一種飛機(jī)空中積冰潛勢(shì)診斷指數(shù)與檢驗(yàn)評(píng)估
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工業(yè)和信息化部民機(jī)適航性驗(yàn)證相關(guān)研究資助


An Aircraft Icing Potential Algorithm and Its Evaluation
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    摘要:

    飛機(jī)積冰是影響飛行安全的重要危險(xiǎn)天氣,準(zhǔn)確的積冰診斷對(duì)民航運(yùn)行與安全具有重大意義,特別是對(duì)國(guó)產(chǎn)大飛機(jī)適航取證具有重要作用。本文參考改進(jìn)的CIP(Current Icing Potential)指數(shù),使用垂直速度和云中液態(tài)水含量對(duì)積冰潛勢(shì)診斷指數(shù)進(jìn)行優(yōu)化得到SCIP(Simplified Current Icing Potential)指數(shù),該指數(shù)直接基于大氣層結(jié)資料給出較為準(zhǔn)確地飛機(jī)積冰潛勢(shì),具有命中率高、實(shí)用性強(qiáng)的特點(diǎn)。用2021年2月28日至12月31日民航航空器報(bào)告對(duì)原CIP指數(shù)和SCIP指數(shù)進(jìn)行對(duì)比驗(yàn)證評(píng)估,發(fā)現(xiàn)相比于原CIP指數(shù),SCIP指數(shù)具有更優(yōu)異的ROC曲線(Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve)和TSS評(píng)分(True Skill Score)。但是對(duì)于不同程度的積冰,原CIP指數(shù)和SCIP指數(shù)均表現(xiàn)出較一致診斷效果,表明SCIP指數(shù)對(duì)診斷飛機(jī)積冰潛勢(shì)具有重要作用,但無法判斷積冰強(qiáng)度。根據(jù)2020年3月16日陜西區(qū)域飛機(jī)結(jié)冰個(gè)例驗(yàn)證表明增加垂直速度和云中液態(tài)水含量的影響對(duì)飛機(jī)積冰的描述更加細(xì)致,對(duì)提升積冰潛勢(shì)診斷效果具有重要意義。

    Abstract:

    Aircraft icing is an important and dangerous weather condition that affects flight safety. Accurate diagnosis of aircraft icing is of great significance to the operation and safety of civil aviation, especially with the advancement of airworthiness certification of domestic large aircraft; the diagnosis of aircraft icing potential attracts the attention of many departments such as civil aviation and meteorology. In this paper, referring to the improved CIP (Current Icing Potential) index, the fuzzy logic method is used to increase the correlation between the vertical velocity and the liquid water content in the cloud affecting aircraft icing, and optimize the aircraft icing potential equation to obtain the SCIP (Simplified Current Icing Potential) index. The index gives a relatively accurate aircraft icing potential directly based on atmospheric layer data and has the characteristics of a high hit rate and strong practicability in the diagnosis of aircraft icing. The aircraft icing potential diagnostic indexes are compared and validated, using the China Civil Aviation Aircraft reports from 28 February 2021 to 31 December 2021. The icing potential index is applied to reanalysis data to simulate historical icing events. Compared with the improved CIP index, the SCIP index shows better Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC) and True Skill Score (TSS). The results also show that increasing vertical velocity and cloud liquid water content in the aircraft ice accumulation potential diagnosis algorithm are crucial to avoid the warning of air alarms. However, for different degrees of ice accumulation, the improved CIP index and SCIP index show a consistent diagnostic effect, indicating that the SCIP index plays an important role in the diagnosis of aircraft ice accumulation potential but cannot judge the ice accumulation intensity. In order to further evaluate the influence of increasing vertical velocity and cloud liquid water content in the aircraft ice accumulation potential index, reanalysis data are used to calculate the aircraft ice accumulation potential of an individual case of aircraft ice formation in Shaanxi Province on 16 March 2020, indicating that increased upward vertical velocity and larger cloud liquid water content provide better conditions for aircraft ice accumulation under the condition of low cloud top temperature. The SCIP index makes up for the shortcomings of the improved CIP algorithm in the diagnosis of aircraft ice accumulation potential under this weather condition, indicating that the increase of these two factors is of great significance to improve the diagnosis effect of ice accumulation potential.

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周琦浩,施鈺鯤,王子祎,孫俊穎,蔣瑜.一種飛機(jī)空中積冰潛勢(shì)診斷指數(shù)與檢驗(yàn)評(píng)估[J].氣象科技,2024,52(1):132~140

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  • 收稿日期:2023-01-05
  • 最后修改日期:2023-09-15
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2024-02-29
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