基于FY-4A衛(wèi)星數(shù)據(jù)的短時強降水監(jiān)測預(yù)警指標
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國家自然科學基金項目(41965001)、寧夏自然科學基金項目(2022AAC03670)、寧夏回族自治區(qū)青年拔尖人才項目(2017-RQ0086)資助


Monitoring and Early Warning Indicators of Short-Term Rainstorm Processes Based on FY-4A Satellite Data
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    摘要:

    選取2018—2021年汛期短時強降水天氣過程,利用相關(guān)性分析、箱線圖法和極值統(tǒng)計法,嘗試研究FY-4A衛(wèi)星產(chǎn)品在短時強降水天氣過程中的監(jiān)測預(yù)警指標。研究表明:①FY-4A衛(wèi)星多通道數(shù)據(jù)可以作為短時強降水監(jiān)測預(yù)警的定量化指標予以應(yīng)用。②篩選出相關(guān)性較好的13項產(chǎn)品統(tǒng)計出短時強降水的監(jiān)測預(yù)警指標,其中賦值類指標4項,數(shù)值判別類指標9項(含輔助指標3項);初步設(shè)定13項指標中有9項達標時,短時強降水會發(fā)生。③在評估基礎(chǔ)上完善了指標,監(jiān)測預(yù)警效果有所提高,TS評分提高5.4%,空報率降低2.7%,漏報率降低1.9%。

    Abstract:

    The short-time rainstorm caused by small and mesoscale weather systems, which has characteristics such as short duration and strong disaster potential. The short-time rainstorms are always the focus of meteorological research and the challenge in weather forecasting. Currently, FY-4A satellite products have a few applications in research and service, especially in the analysis of short-term rainstorms. The application and analysis of satellite cloud images in weather reports are still mainly based on judgment and qualitative extrapolation, lacking quantitative proximity prediction indicators of short-term rainstorms. Based on FY-4A satellite product data and ground precipitation observation data from 2018 to 2021, we study the analysis of short-term rainstorm weather processes in the flood season, which occurs from May to September in Ningxia. By using correlation analysis, box-plot and extreme value statistics methods, we evaluate the monitoring and early warning indicators of FY-4A satellite products in the weather process of short-term rainstorms. The results show that: (1) FY-4A satellite data can serve as not only qualitative indicators but also quantitative indicators for short-term rainstorms monitoring and early warning after processing with methods such as correlation analysis, box plot, and extreme value statistics. (2) Thirteen products of the FY-4A satellite have a good correlation with the sample sequence of short-term heavy precipitation, including Black Body Temperature (TBB), Convective Inception (CIX), Cloud Mask (CLM), Cloud Phase (CLP), Cloud Type (CLT), Cloud Top Height (CTH), Cloud Top Pressure (CTP), Cloud Top Temperature (CTT), Total Precipitable Water (TPW), Quantitative Rainfall Rate Estimation (QPE), Cloud Effective Radius (CER), Cloud Liquid Water Path (LWP) and Tropopause Folding Uppermost Height (TZD), which can serve as monitoring and early warning indicators. We set the criteria that short-term heavy rainfall will occur when nine out of thirteen product indicators meet the standards, which can be optimized and adjusted through operational practices. (3) Among the thirteen products, there are four key indicators, which are Convective Inception (CIX), Cloud Mask (CLM), Cloud Phase (CLP), and Cloud Type (CLT), and three auxiliary indicators, which are Cloud Top Height (CTH), Cloud Effective Radius (CER), and Cloud Liquid Water Path (LWP), while the other products are numerical discriminant indicators. (4) After improvement based on the evaluation, the True Skill Statistic (TS) increases by 5.4%, the false reporting rate decreases by 2.7%, and the miss reporting rate decreases by 1.9%. The study of monitoring and early warning indicators using FY-4A satellite multi-channel product data is an experimental trial and has great application value, especially in the application of quantitative indicators to intelligent discrimination and automatic alarm. This study holds significant importance for improving the early warning recognition and advance warning capabilities of short-term heavy precipitation.

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邵建,何勁夫,陳敏,張亞剛,張肅詔,邵雅涵.基于FY-4A衛(wèi)星數(shù)據(jù)的短時強降水監(jiān)測預(yù)警指標[J].氣象科技,2024,52(1):141~150

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  • 收稿日期:2022-12-21
  • 最后修改日期:2023-11-17
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2024-02-29
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