基于風險普查的地質(zhì)災(zāi)害預(yù)警雨量閾值
CSTR:
作者:
作者單位:

作者簡介:

通訊作者:

中圖分類號:

基金項目:


Research on Rainfall Threshold of Geological Hazard Warning Based on Risk Census
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 圖/表
  • |
  • 訪問統(tǒng)計
  • |
  • 參考文獻
  • |
  • 相似文獻
  • |
  • 引證文獻
  • |
  • 資源附件
  • |
  • 文章評論
    摘要:

    利用湖南省株洲市2011—2021年地質(zhì)災(zāi)害災(zāi)情記錄及區(qū)域自動站降雨資料,統(tǒng)計分析了株洲市地質(zhì)災(zāi)害發(fā)生規(guī)律;以湖南省株洲市為例,分析了地質(zhì)災(zāi)害與降雨量特征值的關(guān)系,探討滑坡型地質(zhì)災(zāi)害預(yù)警雨量閾值確定辦法。結(jié)果表明,暴雨或以上強降雨是突發(fā)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害的主要誘因,地質(zhì)災(zāi)害不僅與當日降雨量有關(guān),還與前期降雨量、降雨強度等密切相關(guān);以有效降雨量、激活雨強作為致災(zāi)因子,利用箱形圖分析法確定了不同預(yù)警分區(qū)內(nèi)滑坡型地質(zhì)災(zāi)害藍色、黃色、橙色、紅色預(yù)警雨量閾值;經(jīng)典型過程反查和歷史案例回算檢驗,以有效雨量為因子確定的地質(zhì)災(zāi)害預(yù)警雨量閾值,可應(yīng)用于地質(zhì)災(zāi)害氣象風險預(yù)警服務(wù),激活雨強確定的地質(zhì)災(zāi)害短臨預(yù)警閾值指標偏低,空報率大,不宜單獨使用。

    Abstract:

    The single-factor analysis and multi-factor comprehensive evaluation delineation method are used to evaluate the geo-disaster prone area, and the rainfall distribution characteristics and the frequency of geo-disasters are combined to determine the geo-disaster meteorological early warning area. Taking the towns and streets as early warning units, and the effective rainfall and activated rain intensity of geological disasters as the disaster-causing factors, the box plot analysis method is used to determine the rainfall threshold index value of all levels of landslide geological hazard. The method of typical heavy rainfall process combined with disaster reverse check and historical typical case back is used to test the rainfall threshold of geological disaster warning. From the statistical analysis of geological disaster census cases in Zhuzhou from 2011 to 2021, it is found that the geological disasters in Zhuzhou are mainly landslide disasters, followed by collapse, and small-scale geological disasters account for 98% of the total. The occurrence period of geological disasters in Zhuzhou is consistent with the rainy season, and landslide geological disasters are mainly distributed in Youxian County and Chaling County, and collapse disasters are mainly distributed in Lusong District and Hetang District. More than 80% of towns and streets in the city have experienced geological disasters. Geological disasters in Zhuzhou are closely related to rainfall, and heavy rain or more is the main factor for the formation of geological disasters in Zhuzhou. When the rain intensity is more than 20 mm/h, the risk of geological disasters in Zhuzhou is relatively high, and the risk of geological disasters induced by heavy rain intensity more than 50 mm/h is great. The critical value of effective rainfall for geological disasters in Liling is 61.9 mm, and the critical rainfall in other counties (cities, districts) is less than 50 mm, and the effective rainfall is more than 80 mm when more than 80% of geological disasters occur. The geological disaster meteorological early warning area of Zhuzhou can be divided into key early warning area A, sub-key early warning area B and general early warning area C. Each early warning area contains N early warning units of towns or streets. The effective rainfall and activated rain intensity are taken as the disaster factors. Using the box plot analysis method, it is clear that the disaster probability of 25% is the yellow warning rainfall threshold, the disaster probability of 50% is the orange warning rainfall threshold, and the disaster probability of 75% is the red warning rainfall threshold. The blue, yellow, orange and red warning rainfall thresholds of landslide-type geological disasters in different meteorological warning zones of Zhuzhou are determined. It is proved that the threshold index of early warning rainfall with effective rainfall as the disaster factor has a good application effect in practical early warning, while the threshold index of early warning rainfall with activated rainfall intensity as the disaster factor is lower and has a larger false alarm rate, so it should not be used alone in practical early warning.

    參考文獻
    相似文獻
    引證文獻
引用本文

曾欣,黃夢妮,謝彥君,胡毓靈,謝倩雯,張志衛(wèi).基于風險普查的地質(zhì)災(zāi)害預(yù)警雨量閾值[J].氣象科技,2024,52(4):610~618

復(fù)制
分享
相關(guān)視頻

文章指標
  • 點擊次數(shù):
  • 下載次數(shù):
  • HTML閱讀次數(shù):
  • 引用次數(shù):
歷史
  • 收稿日期:2023-08-30
  • 最后修改日期:2024-05-07
  • 錄用日期:
  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2024-08-28
  • 出版日期:
文章二維碼
您是第位訪問者
技術(shù)支持:北京勤云科技發(fā)展有限公司
石门县| 常宁市| 盐边县| 都兰县| 鱼台县| 岳阳市| 抚松县| 浦江县| 寿阳县| 尼木县| 怀化市| 鄂伦春自治旗| 红原县| 伊金霍洛旗| 井冈山市| 宜宾市| 宽城| 灵璧县| 壤塘县| 娱乐| 霞浦县| 施秉县| 绥芬河市| 北碚区| 称多县| 汉源县| 浮梁县| 九龙县| 石阡县| 鲜城| 武川县| 沂南县| 濮阳市| 新宁县| 兴山县| 忻城县| 商水县| 白山市| 广河县| 疏勒县| 杂多县|