長江中下游致洪大暴雨事件的關(guān)鍵環(huán)流型聚類分析
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國家自然基金(42175056;U2342208)、上海市自然基金(21ZR1457600)、中國氣象局創(chuàng)新發(fā)展專項(xiàng)(CXFZ2022J009)和中國氣象局氣候預(yù)測重點(diǎn)創(chuàng)新團(tuán)隊(duì)(CMA2023ZD03)資助


Clustering Study on Key Circulation Pattern of Flood-Waterlogging Rainfall Events in Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River
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    摘要:

    大范圍的持續(xù)性暴雨事件會影響水文條件,造成洪水影響。本文針對20世紀(jì)60年代以來長江中下游致洪大暴雨事件個例,基于隨機(jī)分化模擬退火聚類方法和擾動集合相似方法,研究致洪大暴雨事件的關(guān)鍵環(huán)流型及其對大暴雨的定量貢獻(xiàn)。結(jié)果表明,長江中下游致洪大暴雨事件多發(fā)生在梅雨集中降水期,多個事件平均的日峰值降水強(qiáng)度達(dá)暴雨量級。致洪暴雨的500 hPa環(huán)流形勢可聚類為4類,分別為:東亞南高北低型(1型)、東亞三明治型(2型)、南支槽型(3型)和高緯雙阻型(4型)。4個聚類下的西太平洋副高和南支槽對致洪大暴雨的貢獻(xiàn)較為穩(wěn)定,約占3成和1.5成;而中高緯系統(tǒng)影響較不穩(wěn)定,東北亞環(huán)流異常對聚類1、3和4型的貢獻(xiàn)平均近2成,貝加爾湖阻塞異常對聚類2型有微弱貢獻(xiàn);中緯度西風(fēng)槽異常對聚類4型的貢獻(xiàn)約為2成。4個聚類下的10~30 d和30~60 d低頻環(huán)流顯著異常區(qū)和原始觀測的環(huán)流異常關(guān)鍵區(qū)基本一致。西太平洋副高區(qū)的低頻環(huán)流對所有事件均有正貢獻(xiàn),占比約2~7成;其中,除30~60 d低頻環(huán)流對所有事件有影響外,其10~30 d低頻活動對聚類1~2型事件也有明顯影響。南支槽區(qū)的30~60 d低頻環(huán)流對聚類3和4型事件的貢獻(xiàn)占比為27%和16%。大暴雨事件相聯(lián)系的高緯低頻環(huán)流關(guān)鍵區(qū)分別位于貝加爾湖和鄂霍茨克海(1型)、烏拉爾山和西風(fēng)槽區(qū)(2型)、東北冷渦(3型),且貢獻(xiàn)各不相同(12%~31%)。上述關(guān)鍵環(huán)流型及其定量貢獻(xiàn)評估結(jié)果可為加深對致洪大暴雨事件的形成認(rèn)識和預(yù)報預(yù)測提供依據(jù)。

    Abstract:

    Prolonged and widespread heavy rainfall events can significantly impact hydrological conditions, leading to devastating floods. This study focuses on individual cases of flood-waterlogging rainfall events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River since the 1960s. We employed a combination of SAN (simulated annealing and diversified randomization) clustering method and perturbed ensemble analog method to investigate the key circulation patterns associated with these flood-waterlogging rainfall events and quantify their contributions to heavy rainfall. Results indicate that these flood-waterlogging rainfall events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River typically occur during the Meiyu season. Averaged over all events, the daily peak precipitation intensity reaches the level of a rainstorm. The 500 hPa circulation patterns associated with extreme rainfall were categorized into four classes: East Asian dipole mode (Class 1), East Asian Sandwich mode (Class 2), South Branch Trough (Class 3), and High-Latitude Double Block (Class 4). The key circulation features of each class are distributed in the Western Pacific Subtropical High, South Branch Trough, mid-latitude westerly trough, and high-latitude blocking activity areas, contributing to 40% to 70% of flood-waterlogging rainfall events. The Western Pacific Subtropical High and South Branch Trough contribute relatively consistently in all four categories, accounting for approximately 30% and 15%, respectively. However, the influence of mid-high latitude systems is less stable, with the Northeast Asian circulation anomaly contributing to an average of nearly 20% to Classes 1, 3, and 4, and the Baikal Lake blocking anomaly making a weak contribution to Class 2. The mid-latitude westerly trough anomaly contributes to approximately 20% of Class 4 events. The significant anomaly regions of low-frequency circulation at 10-30 days and 30-60 days in the four classes are generally consistent with the observed circulation anomaly key regions. Low-frequency circulation in the Western Pacific Subtropical High region has a positive contribution to all events, ranging from about 20% to 70%. Among these, the 10-30 day low-frequency activity also has a notable impact on Class 1 and 2 events. The 30-60 day low-frequency circulation in the South Branch Trough region contributes 27% and 16% to Classes 3 and 4 events, respectively. The key high-latitude low-frequency circulation relating to the flood-waterlogging rainfall events located in Lake Baikal and the Okhotsk Sea (Class 1), the Ural Mountains and the westerly trough region (Class 2), the cold vortex region in Northeast China (Class 3), with their contribution varying among different classes (12%-31%). The findings of this study on key circulation patterns and their quantitative contributions provide valuable insights for a deeper understanding of the formation and prediction of flood-waterlogging rainfall events.

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施文,梁萍,曹欣沛.長江中下游致洪大暴雨事件的關(guān)鍵環(huán)流型聚類分析[J].氣象科技,2024,52(5):652~667

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  • 收稿日期:2023-09-21
  • 最后修改日期:2024-06-17
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2024-10-30
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