1961—2022年江西省高溫致災(zāi)因子危險(xiǎn)性分析
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江西省防災(zāi)減災(zāi)工程技術(shù)研究中心專(zhuān)項(xiàng)(JX2023M01)資助


Dangerousness Analysis of High-Temperature Disaster-Inducing Factors in Jiangxi Province
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    摘要:

    高溫危險(xiǎn)性評(píng)價(jià)是高溫災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的基礎(chǔ)工作。本文基于江西省1961—2022年79個(gè)氣象站逐日最高氣溫資料,采用最小二乘法和核密度估計(jì)方法,分析了江西省近62年高溫日數(shù)、極端最高氣溫和高溫強(qiáng)度等3個(gè)致災(zāi)因子的變化趨勢(shì),五年一遇、十年一遇、二十年一遇和五十年一遇4種重現(xiàn)期下各高溫致災(zāi)因子取值;并結(jié)合K-means聚類(lèi)分析,對(duì)江西省高溫綜合危險(xiǎn)性進(jìn)行了評(píng)估;最后,探討了高溫對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)影響的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)。結(jié)果表明:①近62年江西省三類(lèi)高溫致災(zāi)因子整體呈增加趨勢(shì),但存在1997年以前下降的階段性特征;②各致災(zāi)因子的單一危險(xiǎn)性均較高,高危險(xiǎn)性區(qū)域占全省面積比例達(dá)到41.7%~61.4%;③高溫綜合危險(xiǎn)性呈南北低中間高的空間分布格局,高危險(xiǎn)區(qū)域主要集中在上饒東部和吉安大部;④高溫對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)影響的中、高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)與高溫綜合危險(xiǎn)性分布一致,而低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)有所擴(kuò)大,主要集中在贛州南部、新余大部、南昌中北部以及九江東部。本文能夠?yàn)闅庀鬄?zāi)害綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估提供一定參考。

    Abstract:

    The increasing frequency, intensity and scope of extreme heat events due to climate change, which is mainly characterised by significant warming, is one of the current key climate stressors for sustainable development in terms of socio-economics, ecological balance and agricultural production in Jiangxi Province. High-temperature dangerousness evaluation is the basic work of high-temperature disaster risk assessment. However, in Jiangxi Province, the current research on high-temperature hazards mainly focuses on the analysis of trends and spatial distribution patterns, and few studies are conducted to reveal the risk of high-temperature occurrence through disaster risk theory. In this paper, based on the daily maximum temperature data of 79 meteorological stations in Jiangxi Province from 1961 to 2022, the trends of three disaster-inducing factors (the number of high-temperature days, the extreme maximum temperature and the high-temperature intensity) and their values under four return periods (1 in 5 years, 1 in 10 years, 1 in 20 years, and 1 in 50 years, respectively) are analysed using the least square method and the Kernel density estimation method, respectively. Then, through K-mean cluster analysis, the dangerousness distribution of each disaster-causing factor is obtained and a comprehensive high-temperature dangerousness map is produced. Finally, according to the disaster risk theory, the agricultural heat risk is assessed by the product of high-temperature dangerousness, agricultural exposure (quantified by land use cover) and agricultural fragility (quantified by gross domestic product kilometre gridded data). The results show that: (1) The overall trend of the number of high-temperature days, extreme maximum temperature and high-temperature intensity in Jiangxi Province during 1961-2022 shows an increasing trend, but the trend has a phased character, with a decreasing trend before 1997. (2) The dangerousness of each disaster-inducing factor is relatively high, with the proportion of high-risk areas in the province ranging from 41.7% to 61.4%. (3) The comprehensive dangerousness shows a spatial distribution pattern of low in the north and low in the centre, and the high-risk areas are mainly concentrated in the eastern part of Shangrao and most parts of Ji’an. (4) Agricultural medium-high risk zones are consistent with the spatial distribution of the dangerousness map. However, due to the uneven distribution of agricultural fragility, the low-risk zone is more surrounded by cities, and is mainly concentrated in southern Ganzhou, most of Xinyu, north-central Nanchang, and eastern Jiujiang. This paper can provide some reference for the comprehensive risk assessment of meteorological disasters.

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陳新玉,李翔翔.1961—2022年江西省高溫致災(zāi)因子危險(xiǎn)性分析[J].氣象科技,2024,52(5):723~732

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  • 收稿日期:2023-10-08
  • 最后修改日期:2024-07-01
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2024-10-30
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