一次對(duì)流云火箭防雹作業(yè)多源雷達(dá)探測效果分析
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中國氣象局-成都信息工程大學(xué)人工影響天氣聯(lián)合研究中心開放課題項(xiàng)目“昆明市晝(夜)間冰雹天氣過程的結(jié)構(gòu)特征及熱(動(dòng))力條件分析”(2023GDRY015)、“多種客觀產(chǎn)品在昆明人工防雹作業(yè)中的應(yīng)用研究”(2023GDRY014)共同資助


Multi-Source Radar Detection Analysis of Effectiveness of a Hail Suppression of Convective Clouds by Rockets
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    摘要:

    本文應(yīng)用昆明市2023年8月10日人工防雹多源雷達(dá)探測資料,從雷達(dá)回波形態(tài)、雷達(dá)參量時(shí)序演變、理論用彈量估算等方面分析了火箭彈體源和線源播撒催化效果差異。結(jié)果表明:C波段雷達(dá)顯示混合播撒后作業(yè)區(qū)雷達(dá)反射率因子減小、回波頂高下降,而體源播撒表現(xiàn)為強(qiáng)回波衰減特點(diǎn)。X波段雙偏振雷達(dá)顯示作業(yè)區(qū)回波頂高發(fā)展與垂直液態(tài)水含量波動(dòng)一致,可用于作業(yè)時(shí)機(jī)選擇;火箭彈體源播撒作業(yè)高度較低,但爆炸產(chǎn)生動(dòng)力效果有利于催化劑擴(kuò)散過程,短期內(nèi)最大回波強(qiáng)度、強(qiáng)中心高度均下降,雙偏振量顯示差分反射率因子降低,差分相位移率低值區(qū)擴(kuò)散;火箭彈線源播撒作業(yè)高度可達(dá)零度層,較長催化過程有助于回波頂高和垂直液態(tài)水含量持續(xù)下降,零滯后相關(guān)系數(shù)增大至0.9以上。單一線源或體源播撒效果差,二者相結(jié)合能夠加強(qiáng)催化效果。理論計(jì)算表明,在不考慮云體發(fā)展?fàn)顩r、用彈量等因素前提下,核化率是影響火箭彈理論用彈量的關(guān)鍵,BL-1A型線源播撒火箭彈較JFJ-1A體源播撒火箭彈更容易達(dá)到過量催化,實(shí)際作業(yè)中單一體源播撒可能會(huì)因炸點(diǎn)偏離、作業(yè)高度有限影響催化效果。

    Abstract:

    Based on multi-source radar detection data from an artificial hail suppression operation in Kunming City on 10 August 2023, this study analyzes the differences in catalytic effects between rocket-based spatial and linear seeding modes from the perspectives of radar echo morphology, temporal evolution of radar parameters, and theoretical estimation of rocket consumption. The results indicate that after mixed seeding, C-band radar data showed a decrease in radar reflectivity and a reduction in echo top height within the operation area, while spatial seeding was characterised by intensive echo attenuation. X-band dual-polarisation radar revealed that the echo top height correlated with fluctuations in vertically integrated liquid water content, providing valuable insights for determining the optimal timing of operations. Rocket-based spatial seeding was conducted at lower altitudes, but the explosive power enhanced the diffusion of the catalyst, resulting in a short-term decrease in maximum echo intensity and height, while dual-polarisation measurements showed a reduction in the differential reflectivity factor and an expansion of the low differential phase shift rate region. In contrast, rocket linear seeding reached the 0 ℃ isotherm height, and the longer catalytic process contributed to a sustained decrease in echo top height and vertically integrated liquid water content, with the zero-lag correlation coefficient increasing to above 0.9. The individual effects of either linear or spatial seeding were limited, while a combination of both seeding methods enhanced the overall catalytic effect. Theoretical calculations suggested that the nucleation rate was the primary factor influencing the theoretical consumption of rockets without considering factors such as cloud development and ammunition consumption. The BL-1A linear seeding rocket was more likely to achieve excess catalysis than the JFJ-1A spatial seeding rocket. In practice, the catalytic efficiency of single spatial seeding might have been compromised due to deviations in explosion points and limitations in catalytic altitude.

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馮亮亮,劉雨潤,張婧琦,方夏馨.一次對(duì)流云火箭防雹作業(yè)多源雷達(dá)探測效果分析[J].氣象科技,2025,53(1):96~111

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  • 收稿日期:2024-01-26
  • 最后修改日期:2024-10-17
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2025-02-27
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