Study of Northward Moving Tropical Cyclones in 1949-2015
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Abstract:
Based on the Data Sets of CMASTI Tropical Cyclones Optimal Tracks from 1949 to 2015, the NCEP 25°×25° reanalysis data, and conventional data, the characteristics of northward moving Tropical Cyclones (TC,Tropical Cyclones) are studied. The results show that there were 91 TCs moving northward into the defined area from 1949 to 2015,accounting for 41% of total TCs over the Northwest Pacific(including the South China Sea), and the annual average was 14 The TCs entered the definition areas the earliest in May,the latest in September,most frequently in August,and moving northward most likely in July. Based on the morphological characteristics of TCs, the tracks of northward moving TCs are divided into turning northward and moving northward directly. The tracks of TCs after turning northward are in close relationship with turning points. It is important to forecast the tracks of northward moving TCs. The sources of northward moving TCs are ranging from 8° to 25°N，122° to 155°E. There are differences in latitude and longitude distributions for the different sources. For the northerly source TCs,there is a great possibility of more northerly turning points and directly northward moving. The life history of northward moving TCs reaches the maximum intensity around 20°N out of the definition areas. When entering the definition areas, TCs are mostly downgraded to tropical storms and the stronger the intensity, the faster TCs weaken, and after entering the influence areas, the neutral TCs increase.The tracks of northward moving TCs are relevant with the position, shape, and intensity of the West Pacific subtropical high. The steering currents in the high ridge of the west edge of the subtropical high decide the future TC track turning or northward moving. The position of the west ridge points decides the position of future TC turning points. There are differences in torrential rain and high wind regions for different northward moving TC tracks. The mainly tracks of bringing strong rainfall and winds include midlatitude turning,highlatitude turning, and direct northward.
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Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.
Supported by:Beijing E-Tiller Technology Development Co., Ltd.